Precipitation forecast — how to read it

The precipitation map shows the forecast rate of water actually reaching the ground in mm/h, from the DWD ICON-D2 model — rain, snow and ice combined into a single intensity field.

ClearToFly precipitation forecast for Wed Jul 15 at 19:15 CEST covering Bavaria from Stuttgart through Munich to Regensburg. Broad scattered light-rain cells (0.1–2 mm/h, light blues) across the region, with a small compact convective core near Kelheim / Abensberg where a hover tooltip reads 37.3 mm/h (very heavy convective rain). The right-side legend runs from very light (0.1–0.5 mm/h) up to very heavy (> 50 mm/h) in a light-to-dark blue scale. — **Wednesday evening precipitation over Bavaria.** A broad shield of light rain (0.1–2 mm/h, light blues) drifts across the region, but a single darker core near Kelheim reaches 37.3 mm/h — the signature of a compact convective cell embedded in a wider stratiform shield, not a smooth rain field. The shape tells you *where* showers are; the colour tells you *how heavy*. Cross-check convective cores with the simulated radar for cell structure and with CAPE for the underlying fuel.

How to read the intensity scale

Below 0.1 mm/h: dry or barely-there drizzle.
0.1 to 1 mm/h — light: light rain or light snow, visibility usually still fine.
1 to 5 mm/h — moderate: steady rain; expect wet runways, reduced visibility, and possible turbulence in convective cells.
5 to 20 mm/h — heavy: heavy rain or heavy snow. Runway conditions matter; braking action can degrade fast.
Above 20 mm/h — very heavy: tropical-style downpours, usually associated with thunderstorm cores. Avoid, don't traverse.

Precipitation vs. simulated radar

Precipitation shows water hitting the ground. Simulated radar shows what a radar would detect in the atmosphere — including high-altitude precipitation that evaporates before landing (virga). If the radar map shows a bright cell but the precipitation map is dry underneath, you're looking at virga — and virga is not benign. It usually sits near a convective cell, and the evaporation cooling produces sinking air and strong outflow winds at the surface. Avoid the area, don't just under-fly it.

Precipitation type: use significant weather

This map does not distinguish rain from snow from freezing rain — it all shows as a single "water equivalent" rate. For the type of precipitation (which is what actually drives icing and runway decisions), see the Significant Weather layer.

When it matters for VFR

Trip planning: where along the route will you be dodging showers?
Runway condition awareness: steady moderate rain for six hours before your slot means a wet runway on arrival.
Shower density judgment: is it "one cell to route around" or "a solid line to wait out"?

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Precipitation forecast — how to read it

How to read the intensity scale

Precipitation vs. simulated radar

Precipitation type: use significant weather

When it matters for VFR